Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071145
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO 
02N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND WESTWARD ALONG 01S TO 02S42W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 
18W-32W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AXIS FROM 30N89W TO 27N85W THAT IS 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 86W-92W. WHILE 
THE SURFACE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THE PAST 
FEW DAYS HAS NOW DISSIPATED...NORTHEASTERLY WIND DOMINATES OVER 
MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO 
HOLD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS 
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY INCREASING 
E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 23N...WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF. 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 
OFFSHORE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 
30N79W S-SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 26N82W TO 
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND INTO A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOSAIC 
DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 
28N AND OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-26N E OF 85W... 
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO ATLC WATERS E OF 80W. 
THIS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND CLEAR 
THE GULF BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDS 
IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 40W-90W. THIS IS RESULTING IN 
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN AS EASTERLY TRADES 
PERSIST WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE 
FEATURE LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION IS A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 22N85W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE 
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE 
LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF 
32N W OF 40W. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS 
FROM 37N75W TO 32N77W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 
FROM 32N78W TO 28N81W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 
26N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W AND 
CONTINUES W-SW TO 29N60W WHERE THE FRONT BEGINS TO BRIDGE THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND 32N67W. A 
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 
25N52W TO THE FRONT NEAR 32N47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-60W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 
60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 40N17W. OF NOTE WITH STRONG E TO NE WINDS OCCURRING 
OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA...THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 
SATELLITE IMAGES ALONG WITH THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LATER TRACKING 
PRODUCT INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN ATLC AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 08N-25N E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN