FXUS61 KRNK 051123
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
623 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO WEDGE SOUTH
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EST SUNDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED THRU TNGT WITH LOW LEVEL WEDGE SLOWLY 
OOZING SW ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF 
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED 
COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL VA WEST TO THE OLD 
PARENT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL KY WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT SE BY LATE TODAY 
IN RESPONSE THE APPROACHING TROF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE 
N. THIS SPELLS CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA/DZ THIS MORNING ESPCLY 
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND SHIFT 
EAST ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT MORE DRYING UNDER THE WEDGE OVER THE 
FAR NORTH THRU THE MORNING SO LESS POP THERE BUT STILL SOME DZ 
AROUND AT LEAST. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING COOL THE LOW LEVELS 
QUITE A BIT ESPCLY ALONG THE NRN BLUE RIDGE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR 
SPOTS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE DAYBREAK THAT COULD RESULT IN 
SOME PATCHY ICING. WILL INCLUDE IN SPOTS EARLY ON AND PERHAPS ISSUE 
AN SPS PENDING TRENDS TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MANY 
PROBLEMS GIVEN THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS OF LATE. OTRW LIKELY/CAT POPS 
SOUTH EARLY ON AND CHANCE NORTH...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THRU THE 
MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 

EXPECT DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO DECREASE FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH THE WEDGE DEEPENING AND ATTEMPTING TO PUSH DOWN INTO 
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS LIFT MAINLY ALONG THE 
SRN BLUE RIDGE WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE 
EAST UNTIL BETTER DRYING DEVELOPS LATE. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE ONLY A 
FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE WEDGE TODAY UNLESS SOME BREAKS DEVELOP WITH 
DRYING NE LATER ON. TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE 
AND MORE SWLY FLOW OUT WEST TRICKY AS TEMPS COULD JUMP WESTERN
SLOPES FROM BLF SOUTH PER CURRENT OBS. OTRW STAYING BELOW THE
COLDER MET MOS EAST TODAY AND CLOSER TO THE MAV SW.

HIGH BRIDGES DOWN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH MODEL DIFFS IN 
REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF DRYING AND IN TURN LINGERING POPS SW. LATEST 
GFS/SREF KEEP A BETTER DEFINED INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE SW WITH WEAK 
UPSLOPE LINGERING THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM DRIER
WITH ONLY SOME LOW LEVEL RH. SINCE ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS GOING AND
TYPICALLY HARD TO DISLODGE MOISTURE IN THIS SETUP ESPCLY GIVEN
LEFTOVER SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP IN SOME CHC COVERAGE SW THIRD
TNGT...AND GO MAINLY DRY/BECOMING PC ELSW. HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH
OVER THE SW LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH SNOW OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE WITH MAINLY A -RA/DZ SCENARIO WITH PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS DO DIP BELOW FREEZING. KEPT LOW TEMPS CLOSER
TO THE MET MOS WHICH PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE 20S NORTH AND AROUND
FREEZING ELSW EXCEPT MID 30S SW UNLESS MORE CLEARING DOES TAKE
PLACE.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

LOOKING TO MONDAY MORNING...WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA 
MOUNTAINS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO 
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. 
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY 
EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW IN HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. WITH NO WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES...SO 
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE 
PASSES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 
TAKES OVER AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON TUESDAY MORNING... 
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. 
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 
HIGH SLIDES EAST...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES REGION. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TREND OF MILD 
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR OUR AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING 
FROM AROUND 50 IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS PARTS 
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S...AND EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR AROUND 
MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNRISE AS CLOUD 
COVER INCREASES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN BORDERS OF 
OUR FORECAST REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS LIMITED...SO WILL EXPECT ONLY 
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME 
OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING AS 
THE FRONT EXITS OUR REGION TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST 
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH A 
TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER QUICK MOVING 
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT 
THERE WILL BE A COLDER WAVE OF AIR BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. 
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...

WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AREAWIDE AT LEAST IN THE 400 TO 800
FOOT RANGE...AND LOWER IN SOME AREAS. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN
BEHIND. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OF MOIST AIR.
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN...BUT EXPECT
WE WILL STILL SEE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY
AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS COOL MOIST AIR WEDGED AGAINST
THE EASTERN FACE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
IFR/MVFR VSBYS MAY ALSO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO AT LEAST THE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS/NF
AVIATION...JH/NF/PM